Video: Why We Don’t Understand Luck

Brilliant insights about untangling skill from luck, and how our brains are biased against seeing randomness in the real world.

Research paper:
Outcome Bias and The Interpreter: How Our Minds Confuse Skill and Luck

My conclusion:
Because of outcome bias, we should concentrate on the quality of the decision-making process instead of the outcome. Like in golf, where you can make a good shot and get a bad bounce, or make a bad shot and get a good bounce.  Improving your skill set and your execution is a recipe for long term success, but there will be random ups and downs along the way.